Weather tragedies, man’s relationship with nature.
It was around one year ago that Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans. As hurricane season again gets underway, the various predictions about its likely severity concentrate the mind on increasingly extreme weather events and global warming. Now, Britain’s most respected natural history figure, Sir David Attenborough has weighed in with his view that global climate change was now beyond question.
The data that, apparently, changed his mind was a graph, showing a constant rise in average temperatures since 1980. Whilst researching an article last year, I came across some very similar data that was specifically related to the West Country. It had the same effect on me; you may judge for yourself.
It seems inconceivable that severe events related to these changes will not continue. How are those on the British Isles placed if that is true?
We may think the chances of a major catastrophe are slim? No doubt those in New Orleans or on Tsunami ravaged beaches thought the same, if they thought at all.
New Orleans has special problems, being below sea level and relying on inadequate defences. That was not so in Boscastle however, yet for those who suffered there the shock was no less great.
Some say we don’t have hurricanes in Britain but how many remember the Hurricane of 1987? Not a proper Hurricane? It felt like one to me. The local airport recorded wind speeds in excess of 120 mph and only that because the needle went off the scale at that point.
The experience of being woken by powerful gusts shaking my house was unforgettable. They increased in strength to become really frightening. I looked out of the window to see oblong silhouettes flicking across the night sky like playing cards. They were the concrete tiles from my roof.
Around a third of the roof disappeared that night and the village was cut off for days due to fallen trees. We had no telephones or power for days. Nearby, a man died when his chimney came through the roof and crushed him. All this in a Kentish village near London; not a place anyone expected to be cut off from civilization.
Not a disaster on the scale of New Orleans but an example of the impossible actually happening and nature catching civilized man off guard. Something that seems to happen with increasing frequency.
How vulnerable are we to a sudden violent natural event? The Boscastle disaster is proof that nature can strike with great force and do so without warning. Is this climate change? Perhaps not in the Linton disaster in the 1950’s, but interestingly the area was experiencing a temperature spike at the time and rainfall data shows a marked increase in the lead up to the Linton flood.
These are the conditions that scientists tell us will be the result of global warming. Unseasonable increases in temperature lead to increased rainfall and an increase in the violence of weather events generally. It is what meteorologists call instability.
The Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute has said that it was exceptional sea temperatures that fuelled a small category 1 hurricane and turned Katrina into a category 5 in a matter of days. They point out that sea temperatures in the region were running at 1.8 to 3.6 degrees C above the norm.
The Massachusetts Institute of Technology say that since the 1970’s – the period when climate change can be measured – hurricanes have increased in length and power by 50%.
In Britain then, does that mean that a similar conclusion can be drawn for areas known to be flood areas? I’m not qualified to say but if I lived in one, I know what I’d assume.
Devon and Cornwall have a huge, and exposed, coastline. It is therefore worth a look at some of the data and predictions regarding the effect of climate change and the subsequent effect on the west of England.
Devon and Cornwall are not generally below sea level but coastal areas are all vulnerable in some respect and in eastern Britain, London for example, there are places definitely at risk. If Britain is to protect itself against global warming then we are in need of disaster planning. Just because a threat is not imminent does not mean we should forget it for now.
A surprising amount of research has already been done on the future threat from greenhouse gasses, so it is worth looking at some points that have emerged.
The nightmare scenario is the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, (currently shedding 250 cubic kilometres of ice each year according to the British Antarctic Survey) this is hundreds of miles across. It could raise global sea levels by 16 feet at a stroke by dumping a continental sized amount of ice into the Southern Ocean in one go, according to the BAS.
This would submerge much of southern Britain and the BAS now question the prediction that this would not be possible before 2100.
A UN body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was responsible for this prediction and offers a more modest picture for Britain of around 1 millimetre per year sea level rise as a result of continuous climate change. Britain’s sea levels will rise by 20-25mm by 2030 if these figures are correct. That’s almost 1 inch in old money.
Temperature is closely related to violent weather events and these have already established themselves as purveyors of tragedy and misery in the region. The IPCC has produced temperature statistics for Devon and Cornwall that on the face of it seem benign enough, a closer look tells a different story however. Plymouth is the best example as it has reliable records going back to 1874.
The report says that Plymouth temperatures have risen by .75 of a degree Celsius since 1900, but a look at the temperature data used shows that from 1900 to around 1980 these were normal small temperature fluctuations. From 1980 onwards there has been steady increase, the only period on the graph where this has taken place.
In effect that .75 C has happened since then. Exmouth has risen by 1.05C starting in 1970. These figures sound small but are significant in climate change terms, especially when you consider that the annual average temperature for Exmouth is 10.4C, so the increase is 10%. Remember that an average temperature is calculated over the 24hour day and over the whole year. That is way the temperatures seem so low. Add 10% to summer temperatures and you will see the impact.
It is inconceivable that this and other changes will not have an impact on life in Devon at some point and I doubt if data would be different in Cornwall or nationally either.
Some scientists say it is already too late to change anything, others that we should try. China and India will expect unrestricted growth to continue, as will all developing countries. That may well leave the wealthier countries like Britain, Europe and the US, with some tough decisions.
Will we be willing to make the sacrifices necessary with the American motorist complaining that “Gas has hit crippling prices” at .38pence per litre? Human nature does not lend many grounds for confidence for a consensus.
Perhaps Mother Nature will be our teacher? If we all feel her force often enough, then perhaps we will start talking and reach a workable agreement.
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